Status of Prevention 2026-04

Status of Orinda Wildfire Prevention and Moving Forward

April 2026

By all indications, Orinda remains under an extreme threat of destruction from wildfire.

37% of Orinda homes have had their fire insurance policies canceled because of the high risk of wildfire.
The latest CalFire fire risk map, adopted by MOFD, shows large areas of Orinda as either High or Very High Fire Hazard Severity Zones.

When last polled (2020), wildfire prevention was the residents’ number one choice for the spending of their tax dollars.

55% considered wildfire prevention Extremely Important, compared with 30% for infrastructure (road and storm drain maintenance) projects.

To provide the city with funds to reduce the threat, Orindans voted to tax themselves with a one percent sales tax which is generating $3.7 million a year and has been for five years (since April 2021). This tax will continue for the next 15 years.

In addition, 22.6% of Orinda’s basic one-percent property tax is allocated to the fire department (MOFD) for “fire protection”. On top of that, MOFD receives an additional $600,000 in parcel tax annually from Orinda property owners.

This year that provides $23.6 million in revenue to MOFD.
Over the next ten years MOFD projects $280 million in revenue from Orinda property taxes assuming a 3.5% annual increase.

Over the past 29 years, since MOFD was founded, Orinda’s property tax base has increased at an average rate of 5.7%. If this continues, Orinda’s contributed revenue to MOFD will be $360 million over the next ten years.

Net of “other” revenue, MOFD projects spending “only” $190 million on service to Orinda over ten years.
The surplus $90 million (assuming 3.5% revenue growth) will be allocated:

$60 million to increase MOFD reserves from $55 to $115 million (100% funded by Orinda taxes; no contribution from Moraga).
$30 million to subsidize operations in Moraga including $9.4 million to rebuild Station 41 on Moraga Way and Moraga’s share of an $11.4 million training center, also in Moraga.
The ten-year surplus could be as high as $180 million.

Bottom line, there is a LOT of money available to deal with Orinda’s elevated wildfire risk.

What would/could it cost to reduce the risk?

Wildfire prevention expert (and Orinda resident) Dr. John Radke has identified 100 separate “fire sheds” in Orinda. These are topographic features that define where a wildfire would “run”. Think of them as gullies or canyons with the fire running up the canyon.

Dr. Radke and a fuel mitigation expert examined three of these. One is off of Valley View Dr. in Southwest Orinda (running into Dr. Radke’s back yard). One is between Scenic Dr. and Estates Dr., an area modeled in the fire prevention proposal to the city by UC’s Center for Catastrophic Risk Management in 2022. And one is in North Orinda around Tiger Tail Ct. These were not modeled, but walked by the fuel mitigation expert. He estimated what it would cost to fully mitigate them and then maintain on an annual basis. For all three, in aggregate, the cost to mitigate would be $350,000, followed by $65,000 per year to maintain them. Assuming these three firesheds are a representative 3% sample of all of Orinda, the total cost of mitigation, if the city did all of the work, would be $12 million for the initial work and $2 million for annual maintenance.

The Measure R tax revenue might be able to afford this, leaving nothing for infrastructure, but this would hardly put a dent into what Orinda is paying to overfund MOFD.

There is a huge need for more aggressive wildfire prevention in Orinda. The current grant program (funding $80,000 last year) does not come close to making any substantial difference. The chipper program picks up the equivalent of two green cans per property per year. Again, a nice gesture but insignificant. The FSMO grant program might generate some use but seeing as Orinda’s grant program can’t even give away $100,000 a year, don’t bet on it (but something is better than nothing).

But the big issue is there is no measure of what effect the work being done is having. The current risk map, by Cal Fire and adopted by MOFD, is questionable at best. Wilder, considered the safest area in Orinda (designated shelter-in-place by MOFD) is rated a Very High Fire Hazard Severity Zone. Some of Orinda, obviously highly vegetated, is not rated at all. The chance to use UC’s “cheap” student labor to run the numbers under the guidance of Dr. Radke and other professors, has been lost. I have no idea if the work proposed back in 2022 can be accomplished today by another institution or a commercial consultant. Radke might be able to give guidance.

One way to move forward is to “attack” vegetation that is known to be a “bad player”. On page 50 (not page 1) of the latest Orinda guide (Plants for a Fire-Savvy Landscape) is a list of fire-prone plants including 24 species of trees; 19 species of perennials and shrubs; and 9 species of grasses.

If Orinda were to just offer to remove ANY tree on the list, for free, that would probably go a long way toward reducing the risk. The risk with many of these trees is that they cast embers in a high wind. And it is the high-wind events that cause massive damages including killing people who are unable to evacuate fast enough. The embers move the fire forward at rates the fire crews cannot keep up with. The name of the game is slowing the fire down to give the crews time to respond. The latest fire, the Spring Fire in Southern California traveled 7 miles in 6 hours over an area equivalent to 50% of Orinda. The first iteration of the Ladris evacuation model only evaluated fires traveling a fraction of that speed.

Orinda needs to be MUCH more aggressive in its wildfire prevention program. The city itself needs to take control of the work. Thinking 7,000 individual property owners, with minimal grants and “education” are going to do the job is fantasy.

And it is going to take the funds currently overfunding MOFD to do the job. Those funds CAN be controlled by Orinda. When MOFD was formed, the residents were promised they would be controlled by, in use in, Orinda. But the mechanism for this, control by Orinda board members, has not been effective. The City Council needs to make it effective. Either by getting the current board members to put Orinda’s needs first or by advising the residents they need to elect board members who will put Orinda’s needs first. There is plenty of money in Moraga to appropriately serve Moraga.