​In February 2026 OrindaReady.com presented 130 wildfire evacuation scenarios analyzed by the Ladris evacuation simulation tool.  These scenarios were based on five wildfire “progression” scenarios. 

 

The progression scenarios, however, are “questionable”, due to the fact that the wildfire projections used in the analyses were moving significantly slower than historic fires which resulted in massive property damage and deaths.

 

Below is a summary of the comparison of the five “selected” scenarios to two recent fires: The 2017 Tubbs fire in Sonoma County and the 2018 Camp fire in Paradise (link to details).  Both of these fires were driven by near hurricane force winds.  This is an event that is becoming more prevalent due to climate change and could occur in Orinda.

 

The Tubbs fire covered 12 miles in 3-4 hours.  The Paradise/Camp fire covered 7.5 miles in 1.5 hours.  The fire spreads used in the February Ladris analyses were no more than 10% as fast; as little as 1% as fast.

 

At the speeds “chosen”, it is questionable as to whether any evacuation at all would be required as suppression forces could probably be put in place before the fires spread.

 

The question that needs to be asked is: “What would evacuation look like in fires that spread as fast as the Tubbs or Camp fires?”

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