In January 2023 Orinda posted its emergency evacuation analysis. Starting on page 5 (Analysis Methodology), the document states:
The goal of this analysis is to identify evacuation routes that are most likely to be congested in a citywide emergency, as well as the residential areas that are likely to face the most evacuation constraints. This section details the method and assumptions used to identify these routes and areas.
Assumptions
The citywide evacuation analysis considers three scenarios which differ in terms of their hazard area location. The generalized hazard area for each scenario is informed primarily from MOFD recommendations of where wildfires that would affect Orinda are most likely to originate, although the hazard area in each scenario is not an specific wildfire origin, spread, or perimeter. Instead, the hazard area in each scenario is defined by which evacuation routes out of Orinda are considered safe to use, based on their proximity to the following three hazard areas:
1. Hazard area is south or west of Orinda, spanning from San Pablo Dam Road in the north to open
spaces southwest of Orinda.
2. Hazard area is Lafayette Reservoir immediately east of Orinda.
3. Hazard area is north of Orinda, spanning from the Berkeley Hills to Briones Regional Park.
All three scenarios assume all residents are evacuating out of Orinda, BUT the analysis does not model wildfire behavior or make any assumptions about the potential timing of when evacuation routes would be impacted.
It will take 24-60 minutes to evacuate most homes in Orinda with many homes being in dead end cul-de-sacs with only one way out.
In his October 2022 proposal to the city, Orinda resident and wildfire modeling and prevention expert Dr. John Radke demonstrated how wildfire spread can be modeled.
Note that the example in the proposal assumed wind speeds of 15-35mph. In the 2017 Tubbs Fire in Sonoma sustained winds of 70mph were recorded. In the 2024 and 2025 fires in Los Angeles, gusts approaching 100mph were recorded.
Orinda needs to understand the threat to life caused by ever-increasing wildfire. Loss of property and availability of insurance is important, but preventing loss of life is paramount.